Following weeks of deliberation and a disappointing performance in a debate with Republican nominee Donald Trump on June 27, incumbent US President Joe Biden withdrew his candidacy for a second term in office and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee.
Biden’s out, Kamala is in. Don’t be fooled: policies won’t change. Just like Biden wasn’t the one calling the shots, Kamala Harris won’t be either. She is the new figurehead for the deep state and the maidservant of Hillary Clinton, queen of the cabal of warmongers. They will… pic.twitter.com/pdwLQwJzR8
— Tulsi Gabbard 🌺 (@TulsiGabbard) July 21, 2024
Biden Withdraws After Debate Performance
Vice President Kamala Harris is widely regarded as the front-runner. Democrats would require a new nominee at their convention in Chicago from August 19 to 22. According to UBS, Harris was included on the statement of organization in the Biden campaign’s filings with the Federal Election Commission, which implies she will face less legal difficulties when using the Biden campaign war fund. Furthermore, UBS stated that it does not expect any of the top Democratic candidates to make a significant shift in policy priorities on problems that affect US investors. It stated that if Harris is nominated, the continuity will be clearest.
“Before Biden retired from the race, we had seen a 60% possibility that Trump retakes the White House, with a 45% probability of a “red sweep.” We also saw a 15% chance of a Trump president with a split Congress, a 30% chance of a Democratic victory with a split Congress, and a 10% chance of a “blue sweep,” UBS added.
Kamala Harris as Democratic Front-Runner
The international brokerage claimed Biden’s endorsement of Kamala Harris puts her in a strong position to win the nomination. However, she must still persuade convention delegates, who are no longer obligated to endorse Biden, that she is the best candidate to defeat the Republican nominee in November, the report claimed.
“We expect her to emphasize the continuity of Biden’s platform, her service as vice president, and her ability to appeal to women, younger voters, and voters of color,” said the international broker.
UBS Analysis on Harris Nomination and Market Impact
According to UBS, a Trump victory, particularly if supported by a Republican majority in Congress, would likely enhance market expectations for tax cuts and reduced business regulation, while also raising concerns about greater trade tariffs. A Democratic administration would most certainly continue to support efforts that promote green energy.
“Investors should remember that US political outcomes are not the primary factor influencing financial market returns or sector performance.” Economic data and Fed rate cut predictions remain at least as significant. Furthermore, much can change before the November election, and a variety of outcomes are still possible,” it stated.
Implications for the Democratic Convention
UBS said its base case that the S& P 500 would end 2024 around 5,900, slightly higher than the current 5,505, would hold in most political scenarios, except a Democratic sweep of power that leads to higher corporate taxes or former President Trump imposing trade tariffs as high as he proposed in his campaign speeches. UBS believes that either result is unlikely right now. Furthermore, it predicts that the bright outlook for top US technology businesses would outweigh political uncertainties.
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