While the marathon 2024 Lok Sabha elections are set to conclude after six weeks of voting, the focus has shifted toward the exit polls.
Please find the details of Jan Ki BAAT Exit Poll 2024 released by me on @ndtv.
Big findings :
PM @narendramodi is returning back as Prime Minister with a bigger mandate than 2019.
– BJP to get more seats than 2019
– NDA to get more seats than 2019
– BJP to get more vote share… pic.twitter.com/VJANZ8SvTl— Pradeep Bhandari(प्रदीप भंडारी)🇮🇳 (@pradip103) June 1, 2024
The various exit polls have indicated that the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is heading towards a massive win. This comes after the second-longest general election in India since the one in 1951-52. There is a tense atmosphere as twelve exit polls have suggested a massive win for the ruling coalition.
Lok Sabha Chunav Exit Poll Results 2024#LokSabhaElection2024 #LokSabhaElections2024 #IndiaTodayAxisExitPoll pic.twitter.com/XaI6Glvpyf
— AajTak (@aajtak) June 1, 2024
Major Exit Poll Predictions
| Lok Sabha Election 2024 | Exit Poll 2024 | Total Seat | 543 |
| Media House | BJP+ (NDA) | Congress+ (I.N.D.I.A.) | Others |
| News 24 – Today’s Chanakya | 400 | 107 | 36 |
| India Today – Axis My India | 361-383 | 131-166 | 8-20 |
| ABP – C Voter | 353-383 | 152-182 | 04-12 |
| India TV- CNX | 371-401 | 109-139 | 10-20 |
| TV 9 Bharatvarsh- Polstrat | 342 | 166 | 35 |
| Republic Bharat- P Marq | 359 | 154 | 30 |
| Jan Ki Bhaat | 362-368 | 141-161 | 10-20 |
| Republic Bharat- Matrize | 353-368 | 118-135 | 43-48 |
| Times Now | 358 | 152 | 33 |
| India News- D-Dynamics | 371 | 125 | 47 |
| News Nation | 342-378 | 153-169 | 21-23 |
Based on opinion polls, it is expected that NDA will win 350-400 seats comfortably. This is in stark contrast to the 2019 general elections where the NDA had bagged a total of 352 seats while the BJP itself had secured 303 seats.
Editor’s Take | Exit polls are indicating a win for the BJP. What will happen now in the short term? Will there be a short covering by FIIs? Will the VIX collapse? Watch!@nikunjdalmia pic.twitter.com/yKxm8Dy2nP
— ET NOW (@ETNOWlive) June 3, 2024
Regional Dynamics and Key Insights
Karnataka and Maharashtra: The exit polls have forecast a good result for the NDA in both the states. This is important because these states account for a large number of the Lok Sabha seats. The martial edge in Karnataka and Maharashtra points to a further entrenchment of support in states that have been hotly contested in previous poll battles.
Kerala: The alliance led by the left appears to be set to be decimated possibly the NDA will open its account in the state. This would be a major positive for the BJP as the party has never really been a force in the state.
West Bengal: Expectations suggest that BJP is likely to enhance its overall performance and may even emerge as the largest party in terms of Lok Sabha seats. It might be noted that the outcomes of the 2024 elections might witness the BJP superseding the Trinamool Congress that had triumphed in the previous polls in the state.
Responses and Reactions
@AxisMyIndia‘s 2024 Exit Polls prediction.#AxisMyIndia #IndiaTodayAxisMyIndiaExitPolls #AajTakAxisMyIndiaExactPoll #IndiaTodayAxisExitPoll@PradeepGuptaAMI @sardesairajdeep @anjanaomkashyap @sudhirchaudhary @rahulkanwal @IndiaToday @aajtak pic.twitter.com/BchoBaMoVC
— Axis My India (@AxisMyIndia) June 1, 2024
Shashi Tharoor (Congress): He also dismissed the exit polls referring to them as “deeply unscientific and reassured of a vastly different outcome on the 11th of March. He ruled out the much-discussed BJP victory in Kerala and Tamil Nadu and predicated a lot of bite loss for the BJP in Karnataka.
Amit Malviya (BJP): Malviya jubilated the exit poll stating it would be historic if Prime Minister Sh Narendra Modi was to come back to power for a third successive term with an even bigger margin of victory.
Abhishek Manu Singhvi (Congress): The two-minute monologue of Singhvi resulted in disappointment when he declared that the exit poll had predicted an even worse result and that the so much-reported Modi wave had not reached the southern states. Taking all the above factors into consideration he has calculated that the overall total of the opposition bloc, INDIA would be 295 seats.
Pawan Khera (Congress): Khera flared up at the exit polls, giving the signal to Congress saying the numbers would go wrong along with the exit polls saying that the result would be in favor of Congress on June 4.
Somnath Bharti (AAP): Bharti, however, doubted the same exit polls, sure the actual outcomes would be different.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Confidence
Prime Minister Modi casts his vote in Gujarat and throws his utter confidence of getting another term in office and even the third term consecutively. On average, he said that the pan-tribal council would win by recording the highest voter turnout and faith in the incumbent NDA government. Election, Modi expressed his gratitude for the turnout referring more women and young people to be engaged in democracy.
Historical Context
During the 2019 General elections, out of 542 Lok sabha seats, the NDA captured 352 of them, out of which 303 were of BJP while the Congress Won only 52 seats. The current estimates show that the BJP would have more than 370 seat mark, and with allies, it is eyeing over 400 plus seats of exiting parliament. The BJP secured 543 out of a total of 545 assigned seats in the Lok Sabha while the ruling majority is calculated up to 272.
Opposition’s Stance and INDIA Bloc’s Predictions
The combined opposition and the main India bloc which is under the Congress have been hopeful even after the exit polls. Leaders like Supriya Shrinate and Nana Patole ruled out the exit polls that they would have a great margin in the number of seats for the alliance. Concurring with the above sentiments the congress president Mallikarjun Kharge said that, the INDIA bloc would clinch more than 295 parliamentary seats.
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